howmanylives.eu

How many died while TCMV deliberated?

NL approved Tesla FSD on 10 April 2026. TCMV still hasn't harmonised it EU-wide. The counter shows the net toll — after crediting lives already saved in five countries.

Deaths from the delay
0
–/yr–/day
Range: –
Injuries from the delay
0
–/yr–/day
Range: –

Since NL approval · – days of TCMV delay · Blocked EU-wide (net of patchwork)

If EU-wide on all FSD Teslas–/yr
Already saved (5-country patchwork)–/yr
From the delay (net)–/yr
Per yearDeathsInjuries
TCMV's patchwork~75k Teslas in 5 countries – –
Blocked EU-wideall FSD-capable Teslas – –
Whole fleet fantasyevery car is FSD – –

The 5-country patchwork is real — people are being saved there (green). Blocked EU-wide shows what's still on the table: the net toll after crediting those savings. Even that number is only a few dozen per year — Teslas are ~0.5% of the fleet. The scary figures only appear in the whole-fleet fantasy.

NL broke ranks
10 Apr 2026
RDW approved. TCMV still patchy — 5 markets.
Tesla's figure
3.5×
Fewer collisions. 3.4× hwy, 1.6× non-hwy.
EU deaths /yr
19,940
2024. 43.6% car occupants.
EU serious inj. /yr
~100k
≈ 5 per fatality (EC).
FSD-capable EU
~550k
HW4 only, rough estimate.
The 3.5× is Tesla's own telemetry (10 Apr–5 Jun 2026), not independently verified, and not an RDW figure. RDW ran its own tests and says it "does not rely on marketing claims or external statistics." Reuters found 10 of 11 independent traffic-safety researchers considered Tesla's methodology misleading marketing. It compares collisions between manually-driven and FSD Teslas — not EU-average fatality rates.

Assumptions

Change any input — the link updates so you can share your settings.

For "Blocked EU-wide". Patchwork fleet held at ~75k.
Not everyone buys the option/subscription.
Even when available, not 100% of the time.
km/year.
3.5× is collisions. For deaths on the roads where people die, the evidence is ~1.6×.
Whole-fleet scenario only. Crashes a car system could plausibly affect.
Attributing deaths/injuries per km:

The math

Blocked EU-wide

Before you @ TCMV

This is counterfactual, not a body counthonesty first

Same numbers as "lives saved by FSD" — flipped to "deaths from regulatory delay." Nobody is claiming TCMV literally killed these specific people. It's a sensitivity model: if FSD works as claimed, how many deaths happened while approval stayed fragmented?

Patchwork saves lives — blocked EU-wide is net of thataccounting

The 5-country rollout (NL, LT, EE, DK, BE) already saves lives — that's credited, not counted as delay. "Blocked EU-wide" subtracts those savings from the gross EU-Tesla figure. Same underlying math, two framings.

TCMV isn't sitting on thousands of bodiesfleet size

The entire EU Tesla fleet is ≈ 0.5% of cars on the road. Even instant EU-wide Tesla approval moves the needle only slightly — dozens per year, not thousands. The gap between patchwork and EU-wide is real but modest.

"Whole fleet" is the 32,000-lives constructionupper bound

Tesla's slide to Swedish regulators claimed 32,000 lives by assuming every vehicle becomes a safe FSD car. Researchers called it misleading. The whole-fleet scenario is the same shape — useful as an upper bound, useless as an indictment of TCMV.

3.5× is about collisions, not deathsseverity

Most collisions kill no one. Assuming deaths fall as much as collisions is unproven; fatal crashes turn on speed and road type. The factor applies most cleanly to minor collisions, less to serious injuries, least to deaths.

Highways vs where deaths actually happenroad type

Zero highway collisions gives 3.4×, but highways are ~9% of EU deaths. On non-highway roads (52% of deaths) the effect was 1.6×. Using 3.5× for fatalities overstates the toll.

The safety data is Tesla's ownsource

Reuters flagged the figures as potentially inflated; US senators asked NHTSA to review the method. RDW did its own testing, but the 3.5× is Tesla's telemetry, not an independent verdict on lives saved or lost.